Women's National Basketball Association · Game Winner
Toronto Tempo at Phoenix Mercury: Phoenix Mercury Win
High-probability market-backed pick focused on hit rate. Price and availability can change; review documented inputs and limitations.
Available line from FanDuel
Published pick
Phoenix Mercury Win
Betsseeker fair probability
78.3%
Sportsbook implied probability
81.1%
De-vigged market probability
77.3%
Expected value
No positive EV at captured price
Price captured
Aug 29, 12:00 AM EDT
Tip time
Aug 29, 10:00 PM EDT
Price discipline
Why this card can be reviewed
This card is tied to one captured sportsbook price. Compare the recorded price with the fair price and re-check availability before acting.
- Recorded price
- -429
- Fair price
- -360
- Price captured
- Aug 29, 12:00 AM EDT
- EV status
- No positive EV at captured price
Assumptions
- The selected sportsbook quote was available and actionable at capture time.
- Recent form is directionally informative but shrunk toward the de-vigged market.
- Missing rest, injury, or player inputs contribute no edge rather than an invented value.
Limitations
- Odds can move after capture and the displayed price may no longer be available.
- The baseline does not model every lineup, travel, coaching, or matchup interaction.
- Sparse samples and incomplete injury coverage reduce confidence and shrink the estimate.
- Historical calibration does not guarantee future betting profit.
