Verified settlement
Published picks, final scores, unit outcomes, and official performance—kept in one auditable ledger.
Ledger shows one canonical pre-tip published pick per event, market, and subject. Earlier revisions are consolidated.
V4 preserves the verified Model 2.0 forward record and appends new V4 publications without rewriting history. Archive and live rows stay labeled.
Win rate
74.0%
37W / 13L / 0P
Flat-stake ROI
-3.1%
-1.56u
Simulated daily accumulator
-47.9%
12 days / -5.75u
Settled picks
50
50 decisions
Last updated
Aug 25, 4:40 AM EDT
Database ledger
Simulated accumulator groups every qualifying published pick by Eastern betting day at recorded prices. 1 of 12 days combine multiple sportsbooks and do not represent single-book wagers. Mean daily flat-stake ROI: -5.2%.
Verified Model 2.0 moneyline benchmark: 12W / 2L · +9.3% flat-stake ROI across 14 settled decisions. This is the preserved forward record, not a reconstructed backtest.
| Matchup | Market | Pick | Win probability | Outcome | Closing line | Result | Units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Sat, Aug 22, 20262W / 3L / 0P / 40.0% win rate / -43.2% ROI / -2.16u | |||||||
 ATLat PHX | Total PointsV4 live | Under 183.5 | LEAN · 63% | 99–89 (188) | 183.5 (-196) | Loss | -1.00u |
 CONat | |||||||
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| Total PointsV4 live |
| Under 176.5 |
LEAN · 65% |
| 68–77 (145) |
| 176.5 (-198) |
| Win |
| +0.51u |
 INDat NYL | Player AssistsV4 live | Aliyah Boston Under 3.5 | LEAN · 62% | 102–109 | 3.5 (-188) | Loss | -1.00u |
| INDatNYL | Total PointsV4 live | Under 193.5 | LEAN · 65% | 102–109 (211) | 193.5 (-198) | Loss | -1.00u |
Fri, Aug 21, 20264W / 3L / 0P / 57.1% win rate / -9.6% ROI / -0.67u | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 PDXat TOR | Player AssistsV4 live | Bridget Carleton Under 2.5 | LEAN · 61% | 79–82 | 2.5 (-188) | Win | +0.53u |
| PDXatTOR | Total PointsV4 live | Under 189.5 | LEAN · 65% | 79–82 (161) | 189.5 (-198) | Win | +0.51u |
 GSVat CHI | Game WinnerV4 live | Golden State Valkyries Win | LEAN · 69% | 70–73 | - (-265) | Loss | -1.00u |
 MINat WAS | Total PointsV4 live | Under 172.5 | LEAN · 64% | 94–84 (178) | 172.5 (-200) | Loss | -1.00u |
| MINatWAS | Game WinnerV4 live | Minnesota Lynx Win | LEAN · 63% | 94–84 | - (-128) | Win | +0.78u |
| MINatWAS | Player AssistsV4 live | Kayla McBride Under 2.5 | LEAN · 62% | 94–84 | 2.5 (-178) | Loss | -1.00u |
